Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
